Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
