Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
