Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”